New Cook Political House Ratings

Some notable changes. Most prominant right now is that Cook has changed NY-13 from Leans Republican to Tossup. Read below the fold.

House Editor David Wasserman foresees a photo finish in the MS-01 special election scheduled for Tuesday:  If it is true that “time heals all wounds,” Republicans would not be panicking over next week’s north Mississippi special election. Yet, two weeks after Greg Davis (R) finished in second behind Travis Childers (D) in the initial round of balloting, private polls suggest that the needle has not moved and that the party’s chances of holding the seat in the runoff are 50/50 at best.  Click here to read more.

ยท House Ratings Changes:

AK-AL   Young     Lean Republican to Toss Up

CA-11   McNerney  Lean Democratic to Toss Up

CT-02   Courtney  Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

FL-21   L. Diaz-Balart  Solid Republican to Likely Republican

FL-24   Feeney   Likely Republican to Lean Republican

KS-02  Boyda     Lean Democratic to Toss Up

KY-03  Yarmuth   Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic

IN-02  Donnelly  Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

IN-07  Carson    Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

MI-07  Walberg   Lean Republican to Toss Up

MI-09  Knollenberg  Likely Republican to Lean Republican

MO-06  Graves  Likely Republican to Lean Republican

NY-13  Fossella Likely Republican to Toss Up

NC-11  Shuler  Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

OH-02  Schmidt  Lean Republican to Likely Republican

OH-14  LaTourette  Likely Republican to Solid Republican

28 thoughts on “New Cook Political House Ratings”

  1. that seems odd here is Jerry McNerney being downgraded to a Toss Up (from Lean D). I’m not a subscriber; did he go into any detail on why? I thought he’d drawn a mediocre challenger.

  3. We don’t know if it is Jenkins or Ryun. If Jenkins the move is deserved, if Ryun it is not. Same goes for Alaska, we need the primary to be locked and done with before this is rated as a toss up, IMO.

    Also, CA-11 does seem inappropriate as previously mentioned.

  5. Leans R:

    CT-04 – Shays

    MO-06 – Graves

    NV-03 – Porter

    NY-29 – Kuhl

    NC-08 – Hayes

    WA-08 – Reichert

    Every one of those are easily tossups at this point.  There is no reason to think any are less than 50-50 takeovers IMO.

  6. underestimate our chances are NM-02 and MO-09.  These two races are at worst slight R lean and probably soon to be tossups.  

    In NM-02 we have a very strong field of candidates raising money at a good clip.  I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if we hold all 3 NM districts after this year thanks to Pearce and Wilson’s quixotic bids for the open Senate seat.

    Same story with MO-09.  This is another conservative district where republicans have a very weak field compared to ours.  I’m very optimistic on this race.

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